Impact of natural disasters on educational attainment in India: a panel data analysis

Abstract

Natural disasters are known to adversely affect welfare, especially education. This can lead to a loss in human capital, reducing future growth and development. We use data from two of the latest rounds of the India Human Development Survey (IHDS) and employ a panel difference in difference regression model with continuous treatment fixed effects at the individual level. This allows us to examine the impact of natural disasters on education outcomes between 2004-05 and 2011-12 at the individual level. Our estimates improve upon all earlier studies on this theme that have relied on cross-section or pseudo-panel data at the district level. We provide first estimates of the impact of natural disasters on educational attainment disaggregated by social (including caste, religion, and gender) and economic groups (consumption quintiles). Natural disasters significantly and negatively affected education for women and three Consumption Quintiles (including those below poverty), Other Backward Castes, Scheduled Castes, Muslims, and other Minorities. We also find that the number of household assets, the number of children in the household, school fees, school type, Confidence intensity, health insurance, and life insurance influence educational years. Our results have significant implications in the context of quality education (SDG 4), gender equality (SDG 5), reduced inequalities (SDG 10), and climate change (SDG 13). The study evaluates the impact of the rising incidence of climate extremes vis-a-vis natural disasters as external shocks on educational outcomes. Educational attainment is directly linked to earnings and is well-established in the literature. We thus believe the negative impact of natural disasters on educational attainment, especially for the marginalized, may have long-term disruptive effects beyond immediate losses and may last through generations.