Convergence and clustering of agricultural exports from India: A dynamic analysis of competitiveness and specialisation

Abstract

This study examined the competitiveness of agricultural exports from 1991 to 2020 in India by assessing convergence and divergence across 24 agricultural subsectors. Using dynamic measures of comparative advantage, the analysis applies ?- and ?-convergence of the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) index and the Trade Balance Index (TBI), along with hierarchical clustering to capture long-run competitiveness patterns beyond static RCA measures. The findings reveal significant ?-convergence in RSCA (-0.41), indicating that initially weaker subsectors, such as dairy, processed foods, and vegetables, have strengthened over time. Despite declines in cereals and tobacco, TBI results show an overall improvement in export performance. Cluster analysis highlights a shift toward value-added and horticultural products, while bulk commodities exhibit stagnation. The study underscores the unevenness of structural transformation and emphasises the importance of policies that promote quality, branding, logistics, and diversification into high-value agricultural exports.