Assessing India's National Tourism Policy (2002-2025): An empirical analysis based on the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis (TLGH) approach

Abstract

The National Tourism Policy (2002) has significantly strengthened India's tourism industry and economy by positioning tourism as a catalyst for economic development. Therefore, this study examines tourism's contribution to India's economic growth and its long-term relationship with key indicators, including gross domestic product (GDP), employment, foreign exchange earnings (FEE), and tourist growth, using the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis (TLGH) approach. Based on secondary data from 2002 to 2025, the research employs descriptive statistics, regression analysis, and Johansen cointegration tests to explore these relationships. Findings indicate that tourist growth significantly enhances GDP growth, employment and FEE. Moreover, a long-term equilibrium relationship exists between tourism and the analysed economic factors. These results align with the National Tourism Policy 2002's vision of leveraging tourism for national development. The study provides theoretical support for the TLGH by establishing a long-term relationship between tourism growth and key economic indicators, such as GDP, employment, and FEE. In practice, the findings guide policymakers in enhancing tourism strategies, investing in infrastructure, and promoting skill development to drive equitable job growth. The results also highlight opportunities for private investment and public-private partnerships, reinforcing tourism's role as a driver of sustainable economic growth in developing economies.